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New projections of households for England and the regions to 2029

Published	16 March 2007

Updated household projections published today show an annual rate of household growth in England from 2004 to 2026 of 223,000 compared with 209,000 in the 2003 base projection (2003 to 2026).

The new Communities and Local Government household projections have been updated by Anglia Ruskin University to take account of the Office for National Statistics - ONS (2004 based) population projections.

The household projections are trend based and indicate what would happen if past demographic changes continue.

The latest figures update the 2003-based household projections (published in 2006). Comparison of the new 2004 based household projections with the 2003 based ones shows:

• Higher annual average household growth particularly in the North East, North West and Yorkshire and the Humber; moderate increase in the Midlands; an increase in London offset by lower growth in the East and South East. (These changes reflect the 2004 based ONS sub-national population projections that include improvements to the method that distributes international migration across England.)
• The number of households in England is projected to increase from 21.1 million in 2004 to 26.0 million in 2026 and to reach 26.5 million in 2029.
  The drivers of household growth are similar in the updated 2004 based household projections and the 2003 based ones.
• One person households account for 155,000 of the 223,000 annual growth to 2026. One third of these one person households are in the age groups over 65 years.
• The increase in cohabiting couples accounts for 65,000 of the annual increase but this is offset by the annual decrease of around 29,000 in married couple households.
• Some 131,000 of the 223,000 additional households per year up to 2026 is attributable to the adult population growth, 45,000 due to changing age distribution and 39,000 due increasing household formation.
• About 33 per cent of the household growth up to 2026 is attributable to net migration into England.

The 2004 based household projections by household type are shown in Tables A and B and by region in Table C. Variant household projections  are presented in Table D and show the effects of different assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and migration. The detailed projections for regions and for district and unitary authorities are available for download in Tables E and F:

Table E: Houshold Estimates/Projections - 2004 based (Excel)
Table F: Sub regional Household Projections, England - 2004 based (Excel)

Table A: Household projections by Household Type					Thousands
	Number of Households				Average Annual Change (2004-2026)
	2004	2021	2026	2029
Household Types
married couple	9,527	8,978	8,898	8,832	-28.6
cohabiting couple	1,987	3,204	3,424	3,552	65.3
lone parent	1,591	1,882	1,928	1,949	15.3
other multi-person	1,421	1,708	1,775	1,817	16.1
one person	6,536	9,200	9,951	10,347	155.2
All Households	21,062	24,973	25,975	26,497	223.3
Average Household Size	2.34	2.15	2.11	2.09

Table B: One Person Households by Age			Thousands
	2004	2026	Average Annual Increase (2004-2026)
Under 25	230	260	1.4
25 - 34	786	1,073	13.0
35 - 44	953	1,508	25.2
45 - 54	859	1,426	25.8
55 - 64	980	1,768	35.8
65 - 74	1,060	1,544	22.0
75 and over	1,667	2,372	32.0
Total	6,536	9,951	155.2

Table C: Household projections by Region						Thousands
					04 based projection	03 based projection
	Number of Households				Average annual Change	Average Annual Change
	2004	2021	2026	2029	2004-2026	2003-2026
North East	1,095	1,231	1,260	1,275	7.5	5.3
North West	2,895	3,348	3,455	3,507	25.4	21.9
Yorkshire & Humber	2,122	2,543	2,648	2,703	23.9	17.7
East Midlands	1,799	2,161	2,251	2,296	20.5	19.5
West Midlands	2,206	2,536	2,616	2,657	18.6	17.8
East	2,304	2,766	2,889	2,954	26.6	27.8
London	3,112	3,797	3,980	4,078	39.4	36.2
South East	3,368	3,963	4,125	4,211	34.4	36.3
South West	2,160	2,628	2,752	2,817	26.9	26.4
England	21,062	24,973	25,975	26,497	223.3	209.0

Variant Projections

The Office for National Statistics produces a set of variant population projections showing the effect of various assumptions about fertility, life expectancy and levels of net migration. These alternate 2004 based variant population projections can be used to produce an alternate set of household projections (Table D). These give a broad indication of the sensitivity of the household projections to the demographic assumptions.

Table D: Variant Household Projections (Based on Variant 2004 based population projections)
			Thousands
			Number of Households in 2026	Average annual increase 2004-2026
Fertility
Long Term average number of	High	1.95	25,999	224
children per adult	Principle	1.75	25,975	223
	Low	1.55	25,961	223
Life Expectancy
Expectation of	High	Males 83.8
life at birth at		Females 86.7	26,208	234
2029 (years)	Principle	Males 81.6
		Females 85.2	25,975	223
	Low	Males 79.5
		Females 83.8	25,737	212
Migration
Long term	High	+190,000	26,665	255
annual migration	Principle	+130,000	25,975	223
	Low	+70,000	25,286	192
	Zero Net	0	24,371	150

Notes to Editors

1. A description of the household projections methodology can be downloaded (Household Projections Methodology) at: www.communities.gov.uk/embedded_object.asp?id=1164239
www.communities.gov.uk/index.asp?id=1156096

2. The 2004-based household projections for England and the regions update the 2003 based projections that were published in 2006. The new household projections reflect the latest Office for National Statistics population projections.

3. The household projections show the number of households that would form if past demographic trends continue.

4. The household projections are produced by projecting household formation rates and applying these to the Office for National Statistics population projections. A description of the household projection methodology can be downloaded (Household Projections Methodology).

5. The household projections are not an assessment of housing need. They do not take account of future policies. They are an indication of the likely increase in households given the continuation of recent demographic trends. They are one part of the evidence that Regional Planning Bodies and local authorities use in the assessment of future housing requirements.

Definition of a household

6. One person living alone or a group of people living at the same address with common housekeeping - that is, sharing either a living room or at least one meal a day.

Households are divided into five categories:

• Married couple household: a household which contains one or more  married couple families.
• Cohabiting couple household: a household which contains one or  more cohabiting couple families, but no married couple families.
• Lone parent household: a household which contains one or more  lone parent families, but no married couple or cohabiting couple families.
• Other multi person household: a multi person household that is  neither a married couple household nor a cohabiting couple household  nor a lone parent household. Examples include, lone parents with only  non dependent children, brothers and sisters and unrelated (and non- cohabiting) adults sharing a house or flat.
• One person household: a person living alone who shares neither  housekeeping nor a living room with anyone else, not necessarily in a  one bedroom dwelling.

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