Statistical Release: Revised projections of households for the English regions to 2026

Published	28 February 2008

The Communities and Local Government household projections have been updated by Anglia Ruskin University to take account of revisions to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2004 based population projections.

The revised population projections used an improved methodology for estimating the distribution of migrants around the country. This has tended to reduce the projected rate of population growth in London and increased the projected rate in other regions.

The overall projections for England are not affected by these revisions and we continue to project an annual rate of household growth in England from 2004 to 2026 of 223,000.

The household projections are trend based and indicated what would happen if past demographic changes continue.

Comparison of the revised with the original 2004 based projections show:

London has lower annual average household growth between 2004 and 2026, with the number of households now projected to grow at 33,400 per annum to 2026.
There is higher projected annual average growth in the East of 29,800 per annum between 2004 and 2026.
To a lesser extent, the East Midlands, South West and South East also have higher rates of annual average growth than previously estimated in the 2004 projections rising to 22,100, 28,600 and 35,800 per annum respectively.
The North East has a lower growth rate between 2004 and 2026 than originally projected, falling to 6,100 households per annum.

Previously published tables for household projections by household type are only slightly revised due to minor updates made to the mid year population estimates for 2004 published by ONS on 22nd August 2007.

Table A: Household Projections by Household Type (MS Excel, 15 Kb)
Table B: Household Projections: One Person Households By Age (MS Excel, 16 Kb)

Table C shows the revised 2004 based household projections by region.

**Table C: Household projections by Region**
							Thousands
					Revised 2004 based projections	Original 2004 based projections	Difference in average annual change
	Number of households				Average annual Change	Average annual change	Difference in average annual change
	2004	2021	2026	2029	2004-2026	2004-2026
North East	1,094	1,207	1,229	1,240	6.1	7.5	-1.4
North West	2,889	3,345	3,453	3,506	25.6	25.5	0.2
Yorkshire & the Humber	2,131	2,542	2,645	2,699	23.4	23.9	-0.5
East Midlands	1,803	2,192	2,290	2,340	22.1	20.5	1.6
West Midlands	2,202	2,527	2,607	2,647	18.4	18.6	-0.2
East	2,312	2,831	2,968	3,041	29.8	26.6	3.2
London	3,101	3,681	3,835	3,917	33.4	39.4	-6.0
South East	3,373	3,993	4,160	4,247	35.8	34.4	1.4
South West	2,159	2,656	2,789	2,858	28.6	26.9	1.7

England	21,063	24,973	25,975	26,497	223.3	223.3	0.0

Variant household projections showing the effects of different assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and migration at a national level remain unchanged and can be found in Table D of the Statistical Release for the original 2004 based household projections at www.communities.gov.uk/news/corporate/new-projection-households (MS Word, 43 Kb).

Table E gives the detailed projections for regions by household type and for district and unitary authorities are available for download in Tables E and F:

Table E: Household Projections by Household Type and Region (MS Excel, 26 Kb)
Table F: Sub-Regional Household Projections (MS Excel, 72 Kb)

Notes to editors

1. The household projections are produced by projecting household formation rates and applying these to the Office for National Statistics population projections. A description of the household projection methodology can be viewed here: Household Projection: Revised 2004 Based methodology.

2. The household projections (with the exception of Table F:Sub-Regional Household Projections) are part of the National Statistics series which are produced to high professional standards, as set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. For more information on National Statistics see www.statistics.gov.uk (external link). Sub regional household projections are less robust than those at the regional level, particularly for those areas with relatively small numbers of households and this should be taken into account when using the figures.

3. The household projections show the number of households that would form if past demographic trends continue.

4. The household projections are not an assessment of housing need. They do not take account of future policies. They are an indication of the likely increase in households given the continuation of recent demographic trends. They are one part of the evidence that Regional Planning Bodies and local authorities use in the assessment of future housing requirements.

Definition of a household

5. One person living alone or a group of people living at the same address with common housekeeping - that is, sharing either a living room or at least one meal a day.

Households are divided into five categories:

Married couple household: a household which contains one or more married couple families.

Cohabiting couple household: a household which contains one or more cohabiting couple families, but no married couple families.

Lone parent household: a household which contains one or more lone parent families, but no married couple or cohabiting couple families.

Other multi person household: a multi person household that is neither a married couple household nor a cohabiting couple household nor a lone parent household. Examples include, lone parents with only non dependent children, brothers and sisters and unrelated (and non-cohabiting) adults sharing a house or flat.

One person household: a person living alone who shares neither housekeeping nor a living room with anyone else, not necessarily in a one bedroom dwelling.