PSA Target 3 - Fire

The Headline PSA Target

By 2010, reduce the number of accidental fire-related deaths in the home by 20% and the number of deliberate fires by 10%.

The Technical Note

The PSA target covers one main and two sub-targets:

Main target:

Accidental fire-related deaths in the home:

To reduce the number of accidental fire-related deaths in the home by 20%, averaged over the eleven-year period to 31 March 2010, equivalent to 280 fire-related deaths per annum, compared with the average recorded in the five-year period to 31 March 1999 of 350 fire-related deaths;

Sub-target 1:

Floor Target:

No local fire and rescue authority having a fatality rate, from accidental fires in the home, more than 1.25 times the national average by 2010.

Sub-target 2:

Deliberate fires:

To achieve a 10% reduction in deliberate fires by 31 March 2010 to 94,000 from the 2001/02 baseline of 104,500.

1. Scope

Whole target:

England.

2. Dates

Main target:

"Eleven year period to 31 March 2010" equals "financial years 1999/2000 to 2009/10, inclusive" - see measurement section below for an explanation of the period used.

"Five year period from 31 March 1999" equals "financial years 1994/95 to 1998/99, inclusive".

Sub-target 1:

The target covers a five-year average, from 1 April 2005 to 31 March 2010.

Sub-target 2:

The target covers the 8 years from 1 April 2002 to 31 March 2010.

3. Ambiguous Terms or Clarifications

Devolution to Wales:

The target applies to England only. By the time the target becomes effective the Welsh Assembly Government will have devolved responsibilities for the Fire and Rescue Service in Wales.

Main target:

"Fire-related" means "attributable to fire". Fire is defined as "an event of uncontrolled burning involving flames, heat or smoke".

"Deaths" means a "Fatal Casualty" which is defined as "A person whose death is attributed to a fire even if death occurred weeks or months later". For further information see link to ODPM Fire Statistics at the bottom of the page.

Sub-target 1:

"Fatality rate" means the number of fatalities due to accidental fires in the home per 100,000 of the population.

Sub-target 2:

A "deliberate fire" is a primary fire where the cause of fire is suspected non-accidental. A 'primary fire' is any fire involving casualties OR any fire involving property (including non-derelict vehicles) OR any fire where at least 5 fire appliances attend. See link to the Annual ODPM Fire Statistics at the bottom of the page.

4. Measurement

Main target:

The baseline is the number of fire-related deaths in the home over the five-year period to March 1999 (350). If the PSA target is met the average annual number of fire-related deaths in the home over the eleven-year period to 31 March 2010 will not exceed 280. The 11-year period has been chosen to provide consistency with the time-scales for other "healthier nation" targets across Government.

Sub-target 1:

The use of a five-year average, from April 2005 to March 2010, will take into account the variability in individual fire and rescue authority's annual fatality rates. The relatively low number of dwelling fire deaths (compared to road deaths, for example) means that fatality rates fluctuate widely at the level of individual service between years. The proposal to use a five-year average would smooth out this effect. (2005 has been chosen as the first year of the five-year average period to allow time for Fire and Rescue Service community safety initiatives in the higher-risk communities to take effect.)

Sub-target 2:

The baseline is the number of deliberate primary fires occurring in the financial year 2001/02 (104,500). If the PSA target is to be met there should be no more than 94,000 deliberate primary fires in England in the financial year 2009/10.

Whole target:

The source for the data is the fire report form FDR1 (94). This was introduced in January 1994, and they are submitted to the Fire Statistics and Research Branch (FSR) of the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister Directorate for every primary fire attended by local fire and rescue authorities.

FSR validates the information returned by fire and rescue authorities and publishes data quarterly and annually through Statistical Monitors and Statistical Bulletins. The information held on fire deaths is checked against death certificates provided by the Office for National Statistics and General Registers Office to ensure that all deaths recorded by the fire and rescue authorities are fire-related.

Data are available approximately nine months after the relevant time-period.

5. Aggregating Target Performance

In order to meet the target the main and both sub-targets must be achieved.

The PSA target contains two mandatory elements and one non-mandatory element.

Mandatory elements:

The main target on the reduction in accidental fire deaths in the home is mandatory if the PSA target is to be met. If the overall reduction in deaths is not achieved then the target will not have been met, irrespective of progress towards the other aspects of the target.

Achieving the 10% reduction in deliberate fires is also mandatory if the PSA target is to be considered met.

Non-mandatory elements:

The "floor" element of the accidental fires in the home target, is a non-mandatory element of the PSA target. The overall target could be 'partly met' even if this element is not achieved.

The target can be judged to have been "Met", "Partly met" or "not met":

"Met" - the mandatory elements and the non-mandatory element must be achieved.

"Partly met" - the mandatory elements only are achieved.

"Not met" - the mandatory elements are not achieved.

6. Achieving the Target

A number of levers and external factors could impact on achieving the accidental fire-deaths in the home and deliberate fires target. The levers centre around effective fire prevention and intervention through measures such as Community Fire Safety, Integrated Risk Management Plans etc. Improved building design also has a part to play: minimum standards, for most new and altered premises, are set via the fire safety provisions of the Building Regulations which are currently undergoing a fundamental review. However, it is not possible to be precise about how these will impact on each element of the target. Consequently there are a range of possible scenarios and their trajectories which are discussed here. All would result in the target being met.

6.1 Main target (Graph 1)

The current average for fire deaths is 292 per annum (between 1999/00 and 2002/3). To achieve the target would require an average of no more than 272 deaths between 2003/4 and the end of the target period.

Graph 1

The graph shows a 'Potential Scenario' based upon the expected success rates of community fire safety interventions which begins to have an impact from 2003-4.

In practise there are a range of factors that will impact on achieving the target. If the impact on fire deaths in the next couple of years (up to around 2005/6 or 6/7) is not as great as the scenario anticipates then much greater reductions will be required in the final years of the project and vice versa. Nevertheless, achieving the target would mean a saving of 1000 lives over the target period. This takes into account changing demographics and an increasingly aging population who are more vulnerable to accidental domestic fire deaths. On this basis we would expect to have saved in the region of 700 deaths by the end of the Spending Review period.

6.2 Sub-target 1

Representing graphically what needs to be done to meet the floor sub-target is more difficult. Unlike the main fire deaths target it is based on fire deaths rates, rather than the actual number of deaths. Furthermore the baseline is not the current deaths rate, but rather whatever the rate is between April 2005 and March 2010. This will be influenced by such factors as demographic and population trends.

6.3 Sub-target 2 (Graph 2)

Deliberate fires have increased by over 40 per cent since 1998, a trend which if it continues would lead to over 140,000 fires by 2009/10.

The main policy levers (legislative changes relating to vehicle registration and vehicle removal, as well as local arson reduction initiatives) are aimed at slowing down the anticipated impact of the European Union End of Vehicle Life Directive whereby more vehicles become abandoned and hence potential arson targets up until 2007. To date, these levers have had a faster and greater impact than anticipated. The number of abandoned vehicles has increased but this has not been translated into increases in deliberate primary fires.

The most recent statistics show that between 2001/2 and 2002/3 the number of deliberate fires fell by 4 per cent. This means that between 2002/3 and 2009/10 deliberate fires need to fall to by 1 per cent each year for the target to be achieved by 2009/10. In fact, the most recent statistics show continuing decreases of around 4-5 per cent per year.

Graph 2 illustrates what would be required to meet the target. This assumes the 4 per cent per year reduction to the year 2003-4 and thereafter minimal further reductions to achieve the target.

Graph 2