Communities and Local Government

• Fire and resilience
• The Fire Cover Review 2000

Fire and resilience

The Fire Cover Review 2000

Progresss report on the pathfinder trials of a risk assessment and fire service resource planning method. Home Office publication published in November 2000.

Background

Formulation of the national standards of fire cover was first laid down in 1936 and later implemented in 1947, following the second World War. They were subsequently reviewed in 1958 and 1985, but were not significantly changed. Essentially the standards comprise four categories of risk (A, B, C and D). For each, the type and time of response is specified. A further category Remote Rural exists for which no specific response is laid down and 'best efforts', often relying on volunteer assistance, are made.

In 1995 the Audit Commission published a report In the Line of Fire which drew attention to the inadequacies it perceived in the present arrangements for the planning and provision of fire cover. It recommended that a research-driven review of the standards of cover be undertaken, and that greater efforts should be made in the area of fire prevention.

The Home Office responded to these recommendations by establishing under the CFBACs' structure the Joint Committee on the Audit Commission Report (JCACR), which submitted its report Out of the line of fire to the CFBACs in May, 1998. It recommended that the new standards of fire cover should be based on risk assessment, should take account of the effect of local fire safety measures, and should provide flexible response commensurate with the risk remaining after all practical efforts had been made to drive risk down by the use of fire safety measures. These ideas were to be tested in practice through the conduct of Pathfinder trials in a representative number of brigades.

The CFBACs accepted the recommendations and after a period of planning, the Pathfinder trials were commenced in January, 1999. Their subsequent progress is described below.

The Fire Service Emergency Planning Process

1. Risk Assessment

Systematic procedures have been developed to allow brigades to assess the various kinds of risk (individual, societal, property, heritage, and environmental) in their respective areas. These are embodied in four toolkits covering:

• Dwellings 
• Other Buildings (shops, factories, offices etc)
• Special Services
• Major Incidents

The level of risk in an area defines the frequency of calls to it, and sets the standard for the required attendance time.

The risk assessment procedures developed by the risk consultants Entec have been independently reviewed (by Mott MacDonald) and no significant weaknesses were found.

2. Response Planning

Brigades identify the resources required at an incident by defining a suitable Worst Case Planning Scenario for the area. In the case of the more routine incidents, the resource requirements can then be determined for each task within the scenario. These resources are then grouped together in 'modules'. For larger incidents, brigades define the resource requirements in terms of these modules. Vehicles are then defined in terms of the modules which they carry, and are allocated to Worst Case Planning Scenarios in combinations which would deliver the required resources.

This defines the vehicles which are required to attend an incident.

A set of 35 basic Worst Case Planning Scenarios has been defined, on which brigades can base their own scenarios, and guidance has been issued on how brigades can deduce their resource requirements for larger incidents.

3. Resource Allocation

The brigade selects a vehicle deployment strategy and identifies whether they can achieve the required attendance times for the areas of intolerable risk. If problems are identified, the vehicle allocation strategy needs to be amended, before proceeding further.

The brigade then undertakes a cost-benefit analysis of their vehicle deployment strategy, taking into account the effect of multiple calls, false alarms and non-FDR1 calls on the vehicle work-loads, identifying where their resources can be most gainfully deployed in responding to calls to areas where the risk is not considered intolerable.

4. Assessment of Effectiveness

The performance of the brigades' vehicle allocation strategy is assessed in terms of its ability to achieve the required attendances, allowing for all the demands placed on their resources, and the cost-effectiveness of this strategy.

Pathfinders Trials - The Plan

1. Organisation

The work of planning and implementing the Pathfinder trials has been overseen by a Task Group of the Central Fire Brigade Advisory Councils for England and Scotland. The work is being led within the Home Office by FRDG, who have commissioned risk assessment, software, and accountancy consultancies to take the work forward.

The Pathfinder trials were originally planned in three tranches, each comprising six brigades. Tranches 2 and 3 were to commence at three and six-month intervals, respectively, after Tranche 1. This was to make support more manageable and allow early lessons learned to be fed into the later tranches. Tranches 1 and 2 were commenced in January and April, 1999, respectively.

2. The Theoretical Phase

The first phase of the trials covered the development of the risk assessment and response options procedures and will assess their likely performance in terms of the level of protection they would provide and their cost. The latter will be done through the use of computer modelling, because of the life safety implications. Brigades will carry out a full risk assessment of their project area, and identify how operational implementation would take place.

3. The Practical Phase

It was planned that the second phase would implement the standards operationally on a trial basis in the Pathfinder brigades, if the results of the theoretical phase justified so doing.

However, it became clear by summer, 1999, that the idea of actually implementing the proposed standards on a trial basis was unlikely to be practically useful. The constraints that would apply (conditions of service, potential Section 19 applications etc) would limit the extent to which the trials could adequately reflect how the new system was intended to be implemented, whilst the sample of deaths and injuries occurring during the trial under the new procedures would be too small to be statistically valid.

Instead, it was decided to ask Pathfinder brigades to assess the implications of implementing the new standards in the light of their experience of using risk assessment and planning flexible response arrangements, and of the results of their computer modelling. This phase of work, Planning for Operational Implementation, was commenced in January, 2000, and is scheduled to be completed by early 2001, when the detailed findings of using the system will be available to brigades.

4. Subsequent Developments

By the time Tranche 3 was due to commence in July, 1999, it was clear that individual brigades had made variable progress, with some Tranche 2 brigades having caught up with their Tranche 1 counterparts. The tranche structure was abandoned, therefore, and the participating brigades are now grouped on a geographical basis (North and South).

Also at this time, it was realised that the project team could not support a further tranche whilst maintaining support to Tranches 1 and 2 and it was decided to defer commencement of Tranche 3. The CFBAC has sine decided that Tranche 3 should not proceed, and the brigades concerned have been notified of this decision.

5. National Costings

In order to assess the cost/performance of the proposed standards nationally relative to the present standards, KPMG are currently developing a cost model which will allow the results obtained from local areas in the Pathfinder brigades to be extrapolated to the national level.

6. Inspection Arrangements

HMFSI are collaborating with the project team and Pathfinder brigades to develop inspection arrangements for the proposed standards of fire cover.

Pathfinder Trials - Progress

1. Background

The Pathfinder trials started in six brigades in January, 1999, and were followed by another six brigades in April, 1999.

The Pathfinder brigades cover a wide range of areas:

Urban	Mixed	Rural
London	Buckinghamshire	Cumbria
Strathclyde	Cleveland	Devon
Tyne and Wear	Lothian and Borders	Oxfordshire
West Yorkshire	South Wales	North Yorkshire

Brigades were asked to select a project area of 8-12 adjacent stations grounds to which the new procedures were to be applied.

2. Incident Data

Risk based fire cover requires a minimum of 3 years of incident data and incidents must have accurate grid references for use in the Geographical Information System (GIS) . This has caused all Pathfinder brigades some form of difficulty. Only two brigades had accurate grid references and it was necessary to process the address of the incident to give grid references for the others.

Overall, the processing of incident data has been very time consuming and some brigades are still refining their data.

To assist brigades other than Pathfinder brigades, guidance on the geo-coding of data was issued in January, 2000 (Dear Chief Officer Letter 1/2000, DFM 3/2000).

3. Risk Assessment

3.1 Dwellings

The first area of work for brigades was the dwellings risk assessment and recently priority has been given to its completion. Eleven brigades have completed most of the dwellings work but have still to carry out a final refinement of their incident data and make a last check before being completely finished. The initial results from three brigades have been presented to the Task Group.

All brigades are expected to complete their dwellings risk analyses and responses options assessments by the end of 2000. This meets the schedule for delivery of the modelling software for dwellings in early 2001 and brigades will then be able to work on this in order to produce results on dwellings for the May, 2001, CFBAC meetings.

3.2. Other Buildings

The Other Buildings toolkit covers all buildings other than dwellings and is an area requiring major work. Brigades have to identify the numbers of 'Other Buildings' in the risk areas that they have defined and then carry out a survey of approximately 10% of those buildings.

Brigades have found it difficult to categorise buildings and carrying out the surveys has been very time consuming, particularly in urban areas.

This is the area of work taking most of the brigade resources at present. In November 2000, it is about 70% complete.

3.3. Special Services

Special services includes, RTAs , extrications, chemical incidents etc and this work has been completed, so far as the brigades are able pending the issue of revised software, by seven brigades.

3.4. Major Incidents

Only two brigades have completed the Major Incidents work to date.

4. Response Planning

Most pathfinder brigades are currently in the process of developing their worst case planning scenarios, and specifying modules and vehicles.

5. Resource Allocation

Software is still being developed to assist brigades in placing their vehicles in stations to achieve an optimum allocation strategy.

6. Content of the Final Report

It is intended that the final report will have three main parts:

• An account of the findings of the theoretical work.This will comprise a quantitative comparison of the present and proposed standards of fire cover. It will include the findings of the risk assessments, response options and modelling work at brigade level; extrapolation of the local findings to national level; and the financial implications of moving to the new standards. (The latter will be based on the cost effectiveness criteria built into the procedures, the predictions of the national cost model, and the level at which risk is deemed to be intolerable - which will form part of the present study.)
• An account of the outcome of the Planning for Operational Implementation study conducted by the Pathfinder Brigades, which will describe the strengths and weaknesses of the proposed standards as they are perceived by the Pathfinder brigades in the light of their experience of the trials; also the management issues they have identified that need to be taken into account when implementing the new standards.
• An account of the inspection procedures proposed for the new standards of fire cover bearing in mind that, whilst the proposed standards will provide a national framework which limits exposure to risk, brigades will have considerable flexibility in the way they propose to respond to such risk when planning firefighting intervention as part of their fire cover arrangements.

7. Timetable

The project plan now envisages three reports to the CFBAC:

• A Preliminary Report was submitted to the CFBAC in May, 2000, and to the SCFBAC in June, 2000
• Interim Reports will be submitted in May/June 2001
• A Final Report will be submitted in Sept/Oct, 2001

The foregoing represents 6 months' slippage on previously published plans. The Home Office has subsequently significantly increased its extramural expenditure on the project, in order to restrict further slippage to the minimum practical.

The timetable is discussed further under the chapter on Issues.

National Issues

1. Implementation Timetable

It is suggested that the CFBACs are unlikely immediately to accept, or reject, the Report of the Fire Cover Review Task Group when it is submitted in Sept/Oct, 2001, unless risk-based fire cover proves to be conclusively inferior to the present system, which is thought to be unlikely. Instead, there is likely to be a period of intense consultation during which stakeholder bodies will consider their respective positions relative to the findings of the report. This period is unlikely to be less than six months' duration, during which time the project team is likely to be requested to amplify its findings, or to extend its analysis of the results.
There is also likely to be a General Election in 2001, which is likely to delay a final decision about implementation.

The forgoing suggests that a decision in principle to implement risk-based fire cover is unlikely to be taken before early 2002.

2. Incident Data

Risk-based fire cover requires a minimum of three years of incident data. If implementation were commenced in 2002, incident data currently being collected by brigades would fall within the requisite data set. Guidance has issued (DCOL 1/2000, DFM 3/2000) on what incident data should be collected and the attributes which it should have, especially with regard to geo-coding. However, the guidance was issued to assist those brigades intending to review their data strategies anyway; it did not advise all brigades to review their incident data in the manner prescribed.

There would be merit in extending the scope of the DCOL/DFM to cover the data requirements of all brigades since it is already clear that the incident data held by most is currently inadequate to support accurate risk assessment for general fire safety purposes, including those of fire cover.

The CFBAC for England and Wales has agreed that ALL brigades should receive details of an improved incident data collection standard (which will be issued at the end of 2000) which they should then begin to implement with immediate effect. However, the CFBAC for Scotland decided not to adopt the proposals for implementing the new incident data collection standards when they are published.

3. Section 19 Applications

It is to be expected that a move to risk-based fire cover would result in significant changes to the present disposition of firefighting resources and a correspondingly greater rate of Section 19 applications being made than usual. Since the consideration of individual Section 19 applications tends to be a lengthy process, it may be necessary to develop a strategy for meeting Section 19 requirements which would arise from the move to the proposed standards. It might be possible to deal with these as a single 'transaction', as part of the transition arrangements. Whatever the outcome, the problem is foreseeable and there is no need to await its arrival before seeking a solution. The CFBAC for England and Wales has set up a Task Group to consider possible ways forward, but the Scottish CFBAC has decided not to participate.

4. Conditions of Service

Implementation of risk-based fire cover may affect the national conditions of service of firefighters. The practicality and timing of any such changes need to be kept in mind when considering the potential timetable for national implementation, should it go ahead.

5. Special Services

The system is being developed to be capable of including special services as part of the planning process. This would make it possible to make specific provision for special services, should brigades wish to do so. The legal consequences of this are still being considered.

Latest Developments

Section 19

The first meeting of the Section 19 Task Group is scheduled to meet on 19 December, 2000.

National Implementation

The Fire Cover Review Task Group has recommended that the fire service should commence planning for national implementation, since sufficient is already known from the pathfinder trials to make this possible. Otherwise, delays will be incurred when implementation is begun which could have been avoided.

In particular, the Task Group has also recommended that all brigades should now commence risk assessment for emergency cover purposes, in advance of the pathfinder trials being completed, since it is known to be a time-consuming process which will require brigades to review their incident data and to carry out surveys of buildings in their brigade areas. This recommendation has been endorsed by the Fire Service Implementation Group (FSIG) and will be put to the CFBAC an its meeting in February, 2001, for approval.

Fire Cover Review Reports List

• Development and Trial of a Risk Assessment Toolkit for the UK Fire Service(Adobe Acrobat - 313kb)
• Development and Trial of a Risk Assessment Toolkit for the UK Fire Service(Adobe Acrobat - 265kb)
• Dwelling Risk Assessment Toolkit(Adobe Acrobat - 182kb)
• Elaboration of a Risk Assessment Toolkit for the UK Fire Service(Adobe Acrobat - 477kb)
• Fire Cover Modelling for Brigades - Summary Report
• Fire Cover Modelling for Brigades(Adobe Acrobat - 539kb)
• A Review of Progress and Future Plans - a note by the Home Office distributed to Chief Fire Officers in September 1998(Adobe Acrobat - 35kb)
• Fire Research News - Issue 22
• High Occupancy Building Risk Assessment Toolkit(Adobe Acrobat - 564kb)
• Major Incident Risk Assessment Toolkit(Adobe Acrobat - 424kb)
• Out of the line of fire
• Response Time Fatality Rate Relationships for Dwelling Fires(Adobe Acrobat - 129kb)
• Revision of the Fire Cover Review Project Plan - a note by the Home Office
• Risk Assessment and Provision of Fire Cover in Remote Rural Areas of Scotland(Adobe Acrobat - 365kb)
• Risk Assessment in Remote Rural Areas: Technical Note, July 1999(Adobe Acrobat - 37kb)
• Risk Rating System for Vegetation, Large Heathland and Woodland Fires(Adobe Acrobat - 412kb)
• Special Services Risk Assessment Toolkit(Adobe Acrobat - 108kb)

The content on this page was originally published in 2000 by the Home Office.